When Leicester City host Watford on Boxing Day, two clubs who expected to be challenging for automatic promotion will instead be fighting for mid-table respectability. Their identical records - 24 points from 18 matches - tell a story of unfulfilled expectations in the Championship.
Leicester's fall from grace
The 2016 Premier League champions find themselves languishing in 16th place, a position unthinkable given their recent top-flight pedigree. Since relegation, the Foxes have struggled to adapt to the Championship's unique demands - the relentless fixture schedule, the physicality, the lack of recovery time between matches.
At the King Power Stadium, Leicester have shown glimpses of their quality. Their possession-based approach can suffocate opposition when executed correctly, but inconsistency has plagued their campaign. Six wins, six draws, six defeats - a record that screams mediocrity from a club accustomed to European competition.
The defensive record concerns most. Leicester have conceded 23 goals, leaving them vulnerable against sides who press high and attack with pace. Watford's direct style could exploit these weaknesses if Leicester fail to control the midfield battle.
Watford's familiar struggles
The Hornets know Championship purgatory all too well. Their yo-yo existence between the top two divisions has become tiresome, and this season represents another chapter of underachievement. Sitting 15th with identical numbers to Leicester (6W-6D-6L, 24 goals scored, 23 conceded), Watford are Leicester's mirror image.
Under their current management setup, Watford have shown resilience but lack the cutting edge required for promotion. Their away form has been particularly disappointing - just two victories on the road all season. The trip to Leicester represents an opportunity to change that narrative against opposition who have been equally fallible.
Tactical preview: two possession teams collide
Both managers favour controlling matches through possession, which creates an intriguing tactical puzzle. Leicester's preference for building from the back could face disruption from Watford's pressing triggers, while the Hornets' own possession game may struggle against Leicester's press resistance.
The match will likely be decided in the transitions. Whichever side can win the ball higher up the pitch and attack before defensive shapes set will gain the advantage. Leicester's superior individual quality should theoretically prevail, but Watford's organization and experience at this level cannot be discounted.
The bigger picture
With Coventry City already ten points clear at the summit and the playoff picture taking shape, both Leicester and Watford face the uncomfortable reality that automatic promotion may already be beyond reach. However, a strong second half to the season could still yield a playoff place - just seven points separate Leicester from sixth-placed Bristol City.
For both clubs, Boxing Day represents more than three points. It's about momentum, confidence, and proving they still harbour legitimate promotion ambitions.
What to expect
Expect a tight, tactical encounter with few clear-cut chances. Both sides respect each other too much to commit bodies forward recklessly. The breakthrough goal, whenever it arrives, could prove decisive - neither team has shown the character to fight back from losing positions this season.
Prediction: Leicester City 1-0 Watford. Home advantage and superior individual quality should see Leicester edge a forgettable contest.
